Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
