Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
